The New Industrial Revolution Is Here

The industrial revolution cycle for transportation: top left — An imperial family coach (Image from WikiCC), bottom left — Ford Model T (Image from WikiCC), and bottom right — Tesla Cybertruck (Image from WikiCC) — images further edited by the author

Industrial revolution is a term that is often associated with the past. In a broad sense, it is a fancy-sounding term used to cluster a bunch of technological innovations that helped us advance our civilization.

But here is what is most fascinating about such clustering:

We can conveniently cluster a bunch of events only after the fact!

In other words, if we are not careful, we are susceptible to hindsight bias (if you are not familiar with the notion of hindsight bias, check out my essay on this topic). On the other hand, if there are clear patterns that are repeating, we might benefit from making a note of them; it is indeed a fine line.

In this essay, I will be making the case for the new industrial revolution that has already begun. To do this, I will be focusing on the following three basic civilizational needs:

1. Power

2. Transportation

3. Communication

Let us begin with revisiting the past once again.

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The First Industrial Revolution (1760 — 1840 (approx.))

The first industrial revolution was centered around the United Kingdom — most of the innovations started in this region. During this period, a wide range of industries saw unprecedented growth levels. The innovation started with the textile industry and spread all the way to agriculture and transportation.

The keyword for this revolution is: mechanization. Innovators all around the globe were trying to mechanise manual labour in all facets of life. Consequently, production efficiency started to rise significantly, which also skewed the supply and demand chain.

Below, you can see the relative share of world manufacturing output from 1750–1900. It was no coincidence that the most dominant global players were also the fastest and best innovators contributing to the industrial revolution.

Turning back to the three fundamental civilizational needs, here is how things played out during this period:

1. Power — Coal was the new and upcoming energy source (transitioning from biomass — source: ourworldindata).

2. Transportation — Steam- and coal-powered locomotives were the star of the show (transitioning from horse-drawn carriages).

3. Communication — Telegraphs made quick, long-distance communication possible for the first time in history (transitioning from post and airmail); printing presses enabled the print of mass media.

Naturally, innovators attacked the problems faced by the supply and demand chain as well. The consequent trade growth led to a macro boom-and-bust-cycle. Growth eventually started to satiate and settle down in the early-mid nineteenth century.

The Second Industrial Revolution (1870 — 1914 (approx.))

The second industrial revolution was centered around the United States — most of the development during this time began in this region. The keyword for this revolution is: automation.

The focus during the first industrial revolution was to mechanise manual labour. During the second revolution, however, the focus turned towards deeper abstraction levels. Innovators started standardizing and mass-producing cross-industry equipment. Businesses started recognising and funding scientific discoveries.

As you’d imagine, the outlook for the three fundamental civilizational needs also began to shift:

1. Power — Oil and gas became the new and upcoming energy sources (transitioning from coal — source: ourworldindata).

2. Transportation — The internal combustion engine transformed the landscape for transportation (transitioning from steam-/coal-powered locomotives).

3. Communication — The Telephone rightly replaced the telegraph by allowing direct voice communication; radio and television became the dominant forms of mass-media publication.

Just as things were looking rosy, World War I started, and progress decelerated rather abruptly.

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The New Industrial Revolution (ongoing)

Fast forward to the present day, we would like to think that the industrial revolutions are a thing of the past. However, let us sit back and revisit how the outlook for the three fundamental civilizational needs is changing:

1. Power — Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and nuclear energy are replacing oil and gas.

2. Transportation — Electric drive trains are replacing the internal combustion engine.

3. Communication — The internet is replacing telephones, radio, television, etc. Video calls via Skype/Zoom are the norm; print and televised media have been replaced by social media and Youtube, etc.

The keyword for this revolution seems to be: scale. To be fair, the aforementioned energy sources and electric drive trains have existed for a long time. However, due to various influencing factors, their cost was significantly higher than their predecessors until recently.

Photovoltaic modules cost roughly $106 per Watt in 1975 (inflation-adjusted). As of 2020, this cost had come down to $0.2 per Watt (source: iea). Similarly, around 2019, renewable energy became cheaper for the first time in comparison with fossil fuels (source: ourworldindata).

All these points indicate that we are right in the next industrial revolution. Not all patterns are repeating though. Throughout the first two industrial revolutions, pollution levels correlated with technological advancement. However, this time around, we are actively controlling pollution levels for the first time. Furthermore, the previous revolutions were spearheaded by one nation each time. But this time around, there is no clear geographical leader.

What Does the Future Hold?

I would be lying if I told you that we could infer what comes next from what we have seen before and what we are seeing today. No one knows what the future holds.

Having said that, we could learn from our mistakes. If history has taught us anything, it is that nothing lasts forever. Sure, renewable energy may be cleaner than fossil fuels, but batteries and chemicals are not pollution-free either. This too shall pass.

If we perceive the current proceedings as the new industrial revolution, not only can we embrace the incoming changes, but we can also be prepared to say goodbye to them when the time comes.

‘Oil and gas’ still employs a lot of people; truck and cab drivers are not artificial intelligence yet; many jobs still revolve around the internal combustion engine; electric drive-trains still use batteries.

We have always transitioned from one technology to the next. We have clustered these transitions and called them “revolutions” for a reason: they have come with conflict and pain. But if we are willing to learn from our past and be perceptive of our present, we need not suffer in our future. Transitions need not come with conflicts and be painful. Transitions need not be revolutions!

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Further reading that might interest you: The Story Of The Rockstar Mathematician Who Never Lived and How To Really Understand The Raven Paradox?

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